Matthew Stafford is better than you think
November 09, 2011I took a look back at Lions' history using the wonderful Pro-Football-Reference.com, taking a specific look at quarterback. The stats make one thing clear about the position as it has been played in Detroit. The Lions have had very few QBs you could consider good (and then, only for short stretches) who were sprinkled between decades of mediocrity, and just one (and only one) player you could consider elite.
What I wanted to do in looking back was to take Matthew Stafford's 2011 season and see where it stands in a historical context. As you'll see, Stafford's season is already standing quite tall.
When talking QB stats, always brought up are yardage, TDs thrown, TD/INT ratio, QB rating, and winning percentage. So lets see what the numbers say...and we know they never lie.
The Lions have been a member of the NFL since 1933. Yet they have had only 7 seasons where a QB has passed for 3000 yards, accomplished by just 4 QBs:
1995: Scott Mitchell - 4338
2006: Jon Kitna - 4208
2007: Jon Kitna - 4068
1997: Scott Mitchell - 3484
1980: Gary Danielson - 3223
1984: Gary Danielson - 3076
2004: Joey Harrington - 3047
The only playoff teams of the bunch were Mitchell's, both were a first round KO.
A whole 3 Lions' QBs have averaged 250+ YPG passing in a season
1995: Scott Mitchell - 271.1
2006: Jon Kitna - 263.0
2007: Jon Kitna - 254.3
Shaun Hill just missed last season, averaging 244.2 in 11 games (10 starts).
Looking back at touchdown passes in a season was even more discouraging. Mitchell is the sole QB to have a 30+ TD season. Just 3 others have had 20+ TDs.
1995: Scott Mitchell - 32
1951: Bobby Layne - 26
1963: Earl Morrall - 24
2006: Jon Kitna - 21
Again, the only playoff season of the 4 was '95. The same season Lomas Brown infamously guaranteed a win against the Eagles...and the Lions proceeded to get completely outclassed, 58-37, in a game the Lions were down at one point 51-7.
Historically, TD/INT ratio hasn't been all that impressive for this franchise either, save for Dave Kreig's great '94 season.
1994: Dave Kreig - 14/3
1976: Greg Landry - 17/8
1968: Bill Munson - 15/8
1999: Charlie Batch - 13/7
1990: Rodney Peete - 13/8
1998: Charlie Batch - 11/6
There has been 1 single, solitary Lions starting QB who has had a rating of over 100.0 while starting a significant number of games.
1994: Dave Kreig - 101.7 in 7 starts for an injured Mitchell.
Mitchell is the sole Lions QB to post a rating of 90+ while starting double digit games.
1995: Scott Mitchell - 92.3 in 16 starts.
As for the best QB in Lions history, Bobby Layne, he never was a great statistical QB. His best overall season was 1951, posting 2403 yards and 26 TDs. But he also tossed 23 INTs and only had a 67.6 rating. Keep in mind it was a different era, when passing games were a rudimentary second thought compared to today's complex attacks.
But of all the QB who have started 10+ games in a season Layne does have the best winning percentage seasons in team history. It's not even close.
1952: Bobby Layne - .818 (9-2, 12 G, 11 GS)
1953: Bobby Layne - .818 (9-2, 12 G, 11 GS)
1962: Milt Plum - .786 (11-3, 14 G, 14 GS)
1956: Bobby Layne - .750 (9-3, 12 G, 12 GS)
The '52 and '53 Layne led Lions won the NFL Championship. In '56, the Lions finished 2nd in the west, but did not make the playoffs in an era when playoffs = NFL Championship Game. The '57 championship season was finished out by Tobin Rote after Layne went down with an injury. Rote was 4-1 as a starter.
The '62 Lions are one of the best in franchise history, yet didn't make the playoffs. They just happened to play in the same conference as the Vince Lombardi led Packers, who were 13-1, and won the NFL Championship. Their 1 loss? The Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
Now let's exit the wayback machine and see where Matthew Stafford stands in comparison to the Lions' best and brightest.
After looking over the numbers, where does Stafford stand? If his season ended after the 8 games he's played to this point, Stafford has already posted one of the best seasons by a QB in Lions' history.
He's thrown for 2179 yards, which is only 29th overall by a Lions QB. But if you extrapolate the numbers over a full 16 game season, Stafford is on track to throw for 4358 yards, which would narrowly beat Mitchell's career '95 season. In other words, the most in Lions' history.
Stafford is averaging 272.4 YPG, which is the best ever by a Lions' QB. Again, beating out the flash in a pan Mitchell.
Stafford's 19 TD passes is tied (Mitchell in '97, Harrington in '04) for 5th best in team history. If you do the simple math, Stafford is well his way to throwing 38 TD passes, which would blow away Mitchell's team record of 32.
I think Stafford's most impressive stat this season is hs TD/INT ratio of 19/4. It's by far the best performance by a QB in franchise history, with only Kreig's '94 season coming close.
Stafford's 2011 QB rating after 8 games is a marvelous 99.1, 4th overall in the NFL, behind Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. That is elite company, if I say so myself. The only season better by a Lion was Kreig's 7 start '94.
And finally, we have winning percentage, which has been the domain of the Hall of Famer, the standard against all QBs are measured in Detroit, Bobby Layne. Stafford's winning percentage this season is .750, which is tied for the 3rd best in Layne's illustrious career.
Here's a couple of stats I would hope, down the line (possibly this season), Stafford can improve as well.
Pro Bowls:
Bobby Layne: 1951, 1952, 1953, 1956
Greg Landry: 1971
1st team All Pro:
Bobby Layne: 1952, 1956
Going back to the 50's, when QBs became more than glorified single wing types who ran far more than they threw, the Lions have had only 2 Pro Bowl QBs, and none since Landry in '71. And if you look at Landry's numbers, you wonder just how in the Hell he made the team.
1971, Greg Landry: 136-261-2237-16 TD - 13 INT-80.9 QB rating, 530 rushing yards, 7.0 YPC
Yes, Landry was much more effective as a runner than a passer early in his career. It also goes to show just how mediocre the Lions have been at QB over the past 50 years, when Landry's average season can be conisdered a franchise standout.
So what can we conclude from this exercise in past futility and future hope?
If Stafford can stay healthy and continue to play as he has, the 3rd year QB is well on his way to setting a standard at the position of which we've never seen in Detroit. Well, at least if you are younger than 55.
Stafford is a franchise QB. The numbers confirm it.
